Global Inflation Outlook for 2025: Expert Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

Inflation has been at the forefront of global economic discussion since the beginning of the 2020s, with countries worldwide facing rising prices due to supply chain disruptions, energy market fluctuations, and post-pandemic recovery policies. Central banks responded to inflation spikes in recent years by raising interest rates, hoping to curb spiraling costs. As 2024 comes to a close, economists and institutions are closely monitoring inflationary pressures and preparing outlooks for 2025.

What is happening now

In 2024, global inflation rates have shown signs of cooling, but they remain above pre-pandemic levels in many major economies. According to reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), inflation in the eurozone is projected to average around 2.7% in 2025, while the US rate is expected to stabilize near 2.4%. Energy prices and wage growth continue to be pivotal factors. Recent market data suggests price growth will moderate further if oil supplies remain steady and supply chain resilience improves.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland has traditionally experienced lower inflation compared to its neighbors, thanks to a robust currency and prudent economic management. For 2025, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) forecasts consumer price inflation to average between 1.3% and 1.7%. While this is higher than the long-term average, it remains manageable. Swiss households may still feel the effects through higher rent and imported goods’ prices, but wage growth and stable employment are expected to offset some of the cost pressures. The SNB maintains a cautious approach, signaling adjustments to monetary policy if global trends shift unexpectedly.

What happens next

Economists believe that central banks worldwide will closely watch indicators such as energy markets, wage trends, and geopolitical risks into 2025. For Switzerland, careful monetary policy and fiscal discipline are likely to keep inflation relatively contained. However, any external shocks—such as changes in global commodity prices or renewed supply chain bottlenecks—could force a revision of current forecasts. Swiss businesses and households are advised to remain attentive to official guidance as the inflation picture evolves.