Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Key Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

After several years of economic turbulence following the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, inflation became a major concern worldwide. Rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and shifting demand patterns led to surges in consumer prices from 2022 onwards. Governments and central banks responded with tightening policies, aiming to curb inflation while fostering growth. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is crucial for households, businesses, and policymakers alike.

What is happening now

According to the latest data from the IMF and OECD, global inflation is expected to moderate but remain above historic pre-pandemic levels in 2025. Experts point to stabilizing supply chains and a gradual easing of energy prices. However, persistent wage growth and geopolitical uncertainties, such as conflicts in key regions and ongoing trade tensions, continue to exert upward pressure on costs. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank, have signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate changes, prioritizing price stability while monitoring economic recovery.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland has traditionally enjoyed lower inflation rates compared to many of its neighbors. For 2025, the Swiss National Bank projects inflation to stay within its 0–2% target range, thanks to the strong franc and effective monetary policy. Nonetheless, Swiss exporters face challenges from reduced international demand and fluctuating currency values. Consumers in Switzerland may experience continued mild price increases for imported goods and travel. The domestic economy, driven by strong services and innovation sectors, is expected to remain resilient despite external pressures.

What happens next

Experts highlight the need for continued vigilance from policymakers around the world. If energy prices spike again or new shocks occur, inflation could rise sharply. The Swiss National Bank will likely adjust its policy as needed, balancing price stability with economic competitiveness. Households and businesses in Switzerland are advised to watch for updated official forecasts and remain adaptable to changing economic conditions. Further global developments—such as easing geopolitical tensions or breakthroughs in supply chain management—could shape the final inflation outcome for 2025 and beyond.