Global Inflation Outlook: Expert Predictions for 2025

Background

Inflation rates surged worldwide between 2021 and 2023, spurred by pandemic disruptions, supply chain challenges, energy price shocks, and geopolitical tensions. While governments and central banks responded with aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal interventions, the issue remained prominent across developed and emerging economies alike. Entering 2024, many countries saw inflation moderate, yet persistent factors—ranging from labor market shifts to fluctuating commodity prices—raised concerns about the shape of global price dynamics moving forward.

What is happening now

As 2025 approaches, economists, central banks, and international organizations are offering their inflation outlooks. According to recent reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, global inflation is expected to fall further in 2025, stabilizing near pre-pandemic levels for most advanced economies. However, forecasts highlight significant divergence: some emerging markets face ongoing pressures due to currency weaknesses and energy prices. Central banks—such as the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank—are signaling cautious interest rate adjustments, with close monitoring of wage growth and core inflation. Ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and supply constraints in key industries remain risks that could rekindle volatility.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland’s experience with inflation has been milder than many peers, thanks in part to the strong Swiss franc and prudent monetary policy. According to the Swiss National Bank, headline inflation for 2024 is projected to ease closer to the 2% target range, with moderate further reductions anticipated for 2025. Swiss exporters remain sensitive to international price shifts and exchange rate volatility, while households monitor the cost of imported goods and services. Swiss policy makers continue to balance low inflation with supporting economic growth, mindful of global trends that could quickly alter the domestic outlook.

What happens next

Analysts expect central banks—including Switzerland’s—to maintain cautious stances through 2025, adjusting policies as needed to react to emerging data. Market watchers are keeping a close eye on potential shocks: new sanctions, energy supply disruptions, or unexpected demand surges. For Switzerland, ongoing vigilance will be key to navigating global inflation dynamics, while businesses and consumers adjust to persistent uncertainties in prices, interest rates, and wages. As information continues to evolve, updates from central banks and international bodies will remain critical for anticipating the next chapters in the inflation story.