Global Inflation Outlook 2025: What Economic Experts Forecast

Background

After several years of economic turbulence marked by supply chain disruptions, increased energy costs, and lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation became a key concern worldwide. In 2022 and 2023, many countries reported record inflation rates, creating widespread uncertainty for consumers, investors, and governments alike. Policymakers responded with aggressive interest rate hikes, aiming to rein in inflation without pushing economies into recession.

What is happening now

Heading into 2025, global inflation rates are showing signs of stabilisation, although they remain elevated in some regions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), inflation is forecast to decrease slightly compared to previous years, but still hover above pre-pandemic averages. Energy prices, wage pressures, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are among the factors keeping inflation persistently higher than many central banks’ targets. Key economies such as the United States and Eurozone are grappling with the challenge of balancing sustainable economic growth with price stability.

Impact on Switzerland

For Switzerland, as a globally interconnected and export-driven economy, the inflation trends abroad carry significant implications. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a cautious monetary policy, managing both domestic inflation (traditionally lower than European averages) and the strength of the Swiss franc, which acts as a safe haven during global uncertainty. While Swiss inflation has been moderate, elevated prices among trading partners can impact import costs and influence export competitiveness. Swiss consumers may also feel indirect effects through higher costs in travel, fuel, and certain imported goods.

What happens next

Economists indicate that while the acute inflation surge is likely over, price growth will remain a key consideration into 2025 and beyond. Central banks globally—including the SNB—are expected to closely monitor data and adjust policies as needed. Businesses and households in Switzerland are advised to plan for ongoing price fluctuations, with a focus on risk management and flexibility. The international economic landscape remains fluid, making accurate forecasts challenging, but vigilance and adaptability will be essential moving forward.