Global Inflation Outlook 2025: What Experts Predict for the Year Ahead

Background

Inflation has been a central economic issue worldwide since the pandemic, with countries responding through interest rate hikes, fiscal policy adjustments, and renewed debates over cost-of-living measures. Following the multi-year disruptions from COVID-19 and geopolitical tension, the world entered 2024 with inflation rates significantly above target in many economies, including Europe and the United States. In response, both public and private sectors have closely monitored consumer prices, supply chain efficiency, and wage growth for early signs of stabilization.

What is happening now

As 2025 approaches, economic analysts and major financial institutions are releasing their latest forecasts. According to recent publications from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, global inflation is expected to moderate but remain above pre-pandemic levels in many regions. Energy prices have stabilized after sharp fluctuations, while food costs remain sensitive to both climate events and ongoing logistical challenges. Central banks in the US, Eurozone, and Asia are signaling more cautious monetary policy shifts as they balance inflation control with supporting economic growth. Current projections show advanced economies trending toward inflation rates between 2.5% and 3%, while some emerging markets may experience higher variability due to currency pressures and supply chain fragility.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland, traditionally known for its monetary stability, has not been immune to global inflationary pressures. Swiss inflation peaked at multi-decade highs in 2022 but has since eased to near 2% in recent months. The Swiss National Bank continues to monitor the franc’s strength and imported price pressures, particularly from neighboring Eurozone states. Analysts forecast that Swiss inflation will likely remain controlled in 2025, but consumer prices could fluctuate depending on global energy costs and cross-border economic developments. The resilient Swiss labor market and robust consumer sector provide a buffer, though businesses remain alert to input price volatility.

What happens next

Looking ahead into 2025, economists expect inflation to further stabilize, provided there are no significant external shocks such as energy price spikes or major geopolitical escalations. Market participants will be watching central bank decisions, especially the pace and scale of interest rate adjustments worldwide. For Switzerland, continued vigilance is required to safeguard purchasing power and manage external risks, while policy makers remain poised to intervene if inflation accelerates unexpectedly. Global supply chain improvements, digital transformation in logistics, and stable trade flows are viewed as key factors in restoring price predictability in the coming year.