Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Predictions and Impacts for Switzerland

Background

In recent years, inflation rates worldwide have been influenced by pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and shifts in monetary policy. Central banks, including the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB), have had to balance interest rate adjustments with growth concerns. As economies continue to recover and adapt, understanding the trajectory of global inflation in 2025 has become crucial for planning and investment.

What is happening now

According to the latest reports from the International Monetary Fund and major financial institutions, inflation is expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels in several major economies in 2025. Factors such as persistent energy costs, ongoing geopolitical instability, and robust consumer demand are contributing to inflationary pressures. In the Eurozone, forecasts suggest inflation will gradually moderate but remain elevated compared to the last decade. The United States and parts of Asia face similar trends. Policymakers are closely monitoring wage growth, commodity prices, and global trade disruptions to adjust their responses accordingly.

Impact on Switzerland

For Switzerland, an export-driven economy nestled in the heart of Europe, global inflation trends pose both challenges and opportunities. The Swiss franc remains a safe-haven currency, appreciating during periods of international uncertainty. This strengthens purchasing power for Swiss consumers but can dampen export competitiveness. The SNB has indicated readiness to make further interventions if needed, including interest rate adjustments or currency market actions. Swiss households and businesses remain sensitive to changes in energy and import prices. Economic analysts in the country predict modest but persistent inflation in 2025, with a focus on stabilizing growth and preserving consumer confidence.

What happens next

Looking ahead, economists suggest that inflation could stabilize by late 2025 as supply chains recalibrate and monetary policy is fine-tuned. In Switzerland, continued vigilance from the SNB and close monitoring of international developments are expected. Experts advise both individuals and businesses to remain cautious in borrowing and investment decisions. Policy debates about potential fiscal measures, such as targeted support for vulnerable sectors, are likely to intensify. The evolving global inflation outlook will be a key topic for Swiss policymakers and market participants throughout 2025.