Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Key Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

Over the past few years, the world has experienced significant inflationary pressures caused by supply chain disruptions, energy price volatility, and post-pandemic economic shifts. In 2022 and 2023, advanced economies, including Switzerland, saw inflation reach multi-decade highs. Central banks responded by raising interest rates, aiming to stabilise prices and restore confidence. As 2025 approaches, policymakers, investors, and households are closely monitoring inflation outlooks and their implications for financial planning and policy decisions.

What is happening now

Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggest that global inflation rates are expected to moderate in 2025 but will remain higher than pre-pandemic averages in many regions. Economists predict that headline inflation in the Eurozone will settle at around 2.3%, while the U.S. is anticipated to average near 2.5%. Price pressures due to tensions in global energy markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and wage increases are contributing factors. Switzerland, known for its historically low inflation, faces imported inflation due to a strong franc and rising costs for energy and food imports.

Impact on Switzerland

For Swiss consumers and businesses, a stable but slightly elevated inflation rate introduces both risks and opportunities. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated its readiness to adjust monetary policy in response to persistent inflationary trends. Retailers are already noting slight price increases in essential goods, and wage negotiations in 2025 are expected to reflect this new environment. Exporters remain concerned about currency strength reducing competitiveness, while importers may benefit from more predictable pricing. The SNB’s cautious approach aims to balance price stability with economic growth, ensuring Switzerland remains resilient despite global fluctuations.

What happens next

Experts recommend closely observing global commodity prices and geopolitical developments, as these may cause sudden inflationary shifts. The Swiss government and SNB are likely to stay proactive, adjusting policies as needed to cushion consumers and businesses. Households are encouraged to review budgets and financial plans, while investors might consider diversifying portfolios to hedge against inflation risk. Updated forecasts will be released in upcoming months, with analysts watching for new economic shocks or unexpected market movements.