Global Inflation Outlook for 2025: What Experts Are Predicting

Background

Over the past several years, countries worldwide have grappled with rising inflation rates, driven largely by supply chain disruptions, increased energy prices, and post-pandemic recovery demands. The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic saw central banks attempt to rebalance economies that faced a mix of labor shortages and volatile commodity markets. In 2023–2024, several economies reported inflation far above pre-pandemic averages, leading to higher interest rates and pressure on households and businesses alike.

What is Happening Now

Latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicates that global inflation is beginning to ease in many developed economies, though persistent price pressures remain a concern, particularly in emerging markets. Experts predict that overall global inflation could average around 4% in 2025, with central banks in the US, Eurozone, and Switzerland expected to keep a cautious stance. Key factors cited include energy market volatility, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and shifting consumer behavior post-pandemic. Economic watchers note that while some countries are seeing inflation normalize, others continue to struggle with elevated food and energy costs.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland has traditionally maintained low inflation rates, owing to a strong Swiss franc and prudent central banking. However, Swiss inflation has also ticked higher since 2022, briefly surpassing the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target. Going into 2025, experts forecast Swiss inflation will stabilize around the SNB’s desired range (roughly 2%), but energy imports and international supply chains remain potential risk factors. Swiss consumers and businesses have adapted through increased price sensitivity and cost-cutting, while policymakers closely monitor global developments to deploy the necessary monetary policy adjustments.

What Happens Next

Looking forward, central banks—including Switzerland’s—are likely to prioritize stability, keeping interest rates elevated until inflation is firmly under control. Experts advise that if global disruptions persist, further policy interventions may be necessary. For Swiss households and enterprises, the focus is expected to remain on managing costs, seeking hedges against volatility, and preparing for potential changes in SNB policy. Financial analysts recommend cautious optimism, as supply chain recoveries and energy market stabilization could foster lower inflation toward the end of 2025. Ongoing monitoring of both domestic and international developments will be essential.