Global Inflation Outlook for 2025: What Experts Predict

Background

After several turbulent years marked by pandemic-related disruptions and geopolitical tensions, global inflation has remained a central concern for governments and central banks. From surges in energy prices to supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures have echoed across continents. Heading into 2025, economists continue to monitor interest rates, commodity prices, and shifting consumer demand to forecast upcoming trends.

What is happening now

Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank suggest that global inflation rates have begun to stabilise in several advanced economies. However, volatility persists in emerging markets, where food and energy prices remain highly sensitive to currency movements and international conflicts. In Europe, inflation is gradually declining but still above pre-pandemic levels, while the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank consider cautious rate adjustments. Experts agree that inflation is likely to persist at moderate levels in 2025, with regional differences continuing to shape the outlook.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland’s strong franc and stable economy have shielded it from the highest inflation seen elsewhere, with rates consistently below the European average. However, Swiss importers and exporters continue to feel the effects of price swings in major trading partners. Rising costs for energy and food imports may put upward pressure on domestic prices, impacting Swiss households and businesses. The Swiss National Bank remains vigilant, prepared to adjust monetary policy should inflation exceed its target.

What happens next

Most economic forecasts for 2025 predict inflation will remain manageable, though ongoing geopolitical risks could introduce new volatility. Swiss authorities are expected to maintain a cautious approach, monitoring international developments while providing stability at home. Global trends will likely dictate the price of imported goods and services, meaning Swiss policymakers and businesses will need to stay agile. Households may need to adapt to fluctuating costs, while exporters look for competitive advantages in stable inflation conditions.