Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Expert Predictions and Key Trends

Background

After a decade of relative price stability, the world economy experienced sharp inflationary pressures in the early 2020s. Disruptions caused by the pandemic, energy price shocks, and supply chain challenges led to persistent cost increases in many regions. Central banks in Europe, North America, and Asia responded by tightening monetary policy, leading to higher interest rates and efforts to curb inflation. These measures had varying degrees of success, and markets are closely watching forecasts for 2025.

What is happening now

Recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggest inflation rates are expected to moderate in 2025 but remain above pre-pandemic averages. As of mid-2024, the United States and Eurozone have seen inflation slow but not return to central bank targets. Food and energy prices continue to be volatile, and some emerging economies face persistent double-digit inflation. Central banks are signaling a cautious stance: future rate cuts will depend on sustained declines in core inflation.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland, with its traditionally strong franc and prudent monetary policy, has been more resilient than many neighboring countries. Swiss inflation remains lower than the European average, helped by stable domestic demand and robust currency. However, exporters are feeling pressure from both strong franc valuation and higher input costs. Rising global inflation has also affected import prices, with Swiss consumers paying more for food, fuel, and energy. Policymakers and the Swiss National Bank closely monitor these developments to protect economic stability.

What happens next

Experts forecast that global inflation will gradually decrease in 2025, though structural risks—such as geopolitical tensions, energy transitions, and climate-driven disruptions—could still trigger price surges. Investors and businesses in Switzerland are advised to remain prepared for ongoing volatility. The Swiss National Bank may adjust rates based on international trends, while consumers are expected to adapt to a period of relative but not complete price stability. The situation is evolving, and updates from global economic organizations will guide further policy decisions.