Global Inflation Outlook for 2025: Expert Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

Inflation has been a key economic concern worldwide since the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, and geopolitical conflicts. From energy costs to food prices, the ripple effects of high inflation have been felt across continents, influencing central bank policies and household budgets.

What is happening now

International economic organizations and analysts are currently projecting that global inflation rates will decline in 2025 compared to previous years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation is expected to dip closer to pre-pandemic levels in many advanced economies, although it remains above targets in some emerging markets. Energy prices have stabilized compared to the spikes of the early 2020s, and food commodity price growth is slowing. Nonetheless, regional differences persist, as factors such as labor shortages and ongoing conflicts continue to influence local price developments.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland’s traditionally stable economy has helped buffer households from the worst effects of global inflation, but Swiss consumers and businesses are not immune to external pressures. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a cautious monetary policy, recently pausing rate hikes as inflation has dropped below 2%. Swiss importers continue to face increased costs due to a strong Swiss franc and higher international transportation prices. For Swiss residents, the economic outlook suggests modest inflation for 2025, balanced by stable employment and a resilient national currency.

What happens next

Looking into 2025, experts predict that inflation rates will continue to gradually normalize, though risks remain. Persistent geopolitical tensions or new supply chain disruptions could create renewed price pressures. The SNB is expected to further adjust its stance according to economic data, with potential future rate cuts if inflation remains subdued. Swiss households and businesses are advised to monitor developments in global commodity markets and domestic policy for potential impacts on costs and spending power.