Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Expert Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

Over the past several years, global inflation has been a key concern for governments, businesses, and consumers. Factors including geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, energy price volatility, and the legacy of pandemic-era stimulus have contributed to persistent price rises in numerous economies. Central banks worldwide have responded with aggressive interest rate hikes in an effort to bring inflation under control, but the results have varied across regions.

What is happening now

Entering 2025, top economists predict a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in most advanced economies, but warn that uncertainties remain high. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank project global inflation to average around 4.3%, down from 5.9% in 2024. However, energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical shocks, and some developing regions continue to experience high price volatility, especially for food and fuel. Policymakers are closely watching wage growth, commodity prices, and global trade patterns for further signs of stabilization.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland’s inflation rate has remained relatively moderate compared to its European neighbors, thanks to strong monetary management and a resilient franc. However, Swiss households still feel the squeeze from higher costs for imports, services, and everyday goods. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has continued its tight monetary stance, but with signs of inflation cooling, is expected to review its policy over the course of 2025. Swiss exporters face both headwinds and opportunities due to exchange rate fluctuations and global demand shifts.

What happens next

Analysts expect inflationary pressures to continue easing if energy prices stabilize and supply chains remain resilient. For Switzerland, upcoming SNB meetings and government policy adjustments will be closely watched as inflation is targeted closer to the 2% mark. Global risks such as escalating conflicts, new trade barriers, or renewed pandemic-related disruptions could change projections. Both Swiss businesses and consumers are advised to remain vigilant and adaptable in this uncertain environment.