Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Expert Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

Inflation has been a significant concern for economies worldwide in recent years, with fluctuating energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainties driving price increases. In 2022 and 2023, central banks raised interest rates to counter inflationary pressures, with mixed results. These measures have influenced everything from consumer prices to investment flows on a global scale.

What is happening now

Heading into 2025, economists and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are forecasting a moderation of global inflation compared to previous years. However, regional variations remain. In the United States and the Eurozone, inflation rates are gradually approaching central bank targets, while emerging markets still face elevated pressure due to energy costs and currency fluctuations. Key risks remain, including geopolitical tensions, volatile oil prices, and potential supply chain shocks.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland, with its robust financial sector and strong franc, has historically experienced lower inflation than its neighbors. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) closely monitors external trends to adjust monetary policy. For Swiss households, the cost of imported goods and energy typically reflects global price movements, while domestic services and food prices have remained more stable. Swiss businesses reliant on exports or foreign supply chains may face cost pressures, especially if inflation in the Eurozone stays above targets or if currency swings intensify.

What happens next

Experts indicate that inflation is likely to slow but may not return to pre-pandemic lows in the near term. Swiss policymakers are expected to keep a cautious stance, with flexible monetary adjustments likely. Consumers and companies are advised to monitor ongoing changes in interest rates and international developments. The situation is evolving, and further updates will depend on how global risks—such as new conflicts or supply issues—play out.