Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Forecasts and Swiss Implications

Background

Inflation rates around the world have fluctuated significantly since 2020, influenced by pandemic recovery, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. Central banks globally took measures such as raising interest rates to curb rising consumer prices, while governments implemented various fiscal policies to absorb shocks. By late 2024, inflation had moderated in some advanced economies, but concerns remained over persistent price pressures in energy, food, and housing sectors.

What is happening now

As 2025 approaches, financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and OECD have released new inflation forecasts, indicating that while price increases are slowing in some regions, many countries will continue to see above-average rates. Energy markets remain volatile, and persistent supply bottlenecks in certain commodities are placing continued pressure on costs. Recent statements from central banks suggest a cautious approach to further interest rate adjustments, with inflation still a primary concern for economic stability worldwide.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland, traditionally known for its price stability, is not immune to global trends. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a vigilant stance, having adjusted interest rates to curb imported inflation. Swiss consumers have experienced higher prices for energy and imported goods, though the impact has been less severe than in several EU countries. Swiss exporters, especially in sectors like machinery and precision instruments, are closely monitoring exchange rates and foreign demand, as inflationary trends elsewhere can influence competitiveness and profitability.

What happens next

Looking ahead, Swiss authorities are expected to continue their balancing act between keeping inflation under control and supporting economic growth. Experts advise careful monitoring of currency movements and international price trends, with further policy adjustments possible if inflation exceeds the SNB’s target range. For consumers and businesses, proactive budgeting and hedging against price volatility are recommended as the global inflation landscape evolves in 2025.