Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Key Predictions and Swiss Impact

Background

Inflation has been a central economic concern since pandemic-driven disruptions intensified price volatility worldwide. Over the past several years, nations have struggled with rising costs of living, supply chain issues, and monetary policy adjustments. Switzerland, traditionally known for low inflation rates and economic stability, has experienced a moderate rise in consumer prices since 2021, partly due to global market pressures.

What is happening now

Analysts and international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), are projecting mixed inflation prospects for 2025. While many developed economies expect easing price growth due to stabilized supply chains and tighter monetary policies, certain sectors—such as energy and food—remain volatile. Switzerland’s inflation rate is forecasted to remain moderate, thanks to robust monetary interventions by the Swiss National Bank and the strength of the Swiss franc.

• IMF projects global inflation to decline to 4.5% in 2025 from current highs.
• Food and energy sectors may see lingering price pressures.
• Emerging markets are likely to face higher inflation compared to advanced economies.

Impact on Switzerland

Swiss consumers are expected to benefit from relatively stable prices in comparison to many European peers. The strong franc and effective central bank policies help dampen imported inflation. However, global factors, such as energy costs and geopolitical developments, could still influence the Swiss market. Swiss businesses, especially exporters, must navigate currency fluctuations and shifting international demand patterns. Households may continue to adjust spending habits as certain goods or services become more expensive.

What happens next

Experts indicate that inflation uncertainty will persist into 2025, with ongoing monitoring by central banks worldwide. Switzerland’s cautious approach—balancing low inflation with economic growth—should offer some protections, yet consumers and businesses are advised to remain vigilant. Decisions on interest rates, energy policy, and supply chain management will play a crucial role in shaping the inflation landscape. Updates from the Swiss National Bank and global financial institutions are expected later this year, providing further guidance for households and investors.