Global Inflation Outlook 2025: Predictions and Swiss Perspectives

Background

Inflation, the general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money, has been a major economic concern since the COVID-19 pandemic. Rising global energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and shifting monetary policies have contributed to recent inflation volatility. Central banks around the world, including the Swiss National Bank (SNB), have navigated complex conditions to stabilize economies.

What is happening now

As we enter the middle of 2024, new inflation data and expert forecasts for 2025 are being released. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and key central banks predict that global inflation will moderate in advanced economies but remain above pre-pandemic levels. Factors such as persistent supply chain pressures, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and uncertain energy markets continue to weigh on prices worldwide. Switzerland, with its traditionally low inflation, has also experienced upward pressure, though at lower rates than many neighboring countries.

Impact on Switzerland

For Switzerland, inflation is projected to stabilize between 1% and 2% in 2025, according to recent SNB reports. Swiss consumers may see ongoing price increases in energy, imported goods, and travel-related expenses. Businesses face higher input costs but benefit from the franc’s strength, which moderates the price of imports. The Swiss government and SNB remain vigilant, balancing inflation control with ongoing economic growth.

What happens next

Analysts expect global inflation to continue easing gradually into 2025, provided that energy markets remain stable and geopolitical risks do not escalate. The SNB is likely to keep a close watch on external developments, adjusting policies as needed. For Swiss households and companies, careful budget planning and cost management will be crucial as inflationary pressures persist, albeit at lower levels than the recent peak.