Global Inflation 2025: Key Predictions and Swiss Implications

Background

Inflation has been a major economic concern worldwide since the pandemic, fueled by disrupted supply chains, energy price volatility, and shifting consumer behavior. In recent years, central banks including the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the US Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank have struggled to find the right balance between supporting growth and taming inflation. As we approach 2025, the global backdrop includes a mixture of lingering effects from previous crises and new factors reshaping the inflation debate.

What is happening now

Current forecasts from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and major banks indicate that global inflation is expected to moderate in 2025, but at a higher level than pre-pandemic averages. Core drivers include persistent supply chain adjustments, ongoing geopolitical tensions (notably in energy markets), and wage growth outpacing productivity in several advanced economies. Switzerland’s annual inflation rate, after a period of unusual volatility, is projected to remain low by international standards, with forecasts hovering close to the SNB’s 2% target.

• Eurozone inflation expected to range from 2.5% to 3%.
• US inflation forecasted between 2.6% and 3.2%.
• Emerging markets facing more volatile pressures due to global commodity prices.

Impact on Switzerland

For Switzerland, a stable inflation rate is critical to economic planning and household purchasing power. While the strong Swiss franc continues to shield consumers from steep import price increases, Swiss exporters face challenges from weaker foreign demand and currency fluctuations. Rising prices for raw materials and energy could also affect local industries, albeit less severely than in many other European countries. The Swiss National Bank is expected to carefully manage interest rates to support economic stability without fueling inflation.

What happens next

Experts suggest that central banks worldwide will maintain a cautious approach to policy in 2025, monitoring wage growth and energy costs closely. Any new geopolitical shocks or sudden spikes in commodity prices could trigger renewed inflation volatility. In Switzerland, the focus will likely remain on preserving consumer confidence and economic resilience. Many analysts advise that both businesses and households plan for gradual but sustained price increases through the year. Updates will continue as new data emerges.