Global Inflation Outlook 2025: What Experts Predict for Switzerland

Background

Inflation rates have remained a central concern worldwide since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains and spurred government spending. Central banks responded with interest rate hikes, aiming to control escalating prices. In Switzerland, inflation has historically been lower than in other European countries due to a stable Swiss franc and prudent monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Yet, global economic uncertainties continue to influence the Swiss economy.

What is happening now

Entering 2025, global inflation remains a volatile topic. Recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) point to moderate but uncertain inflation in advanced economies. Europe faces uneven recovery, with energy prices stabilizing while food and wage costs are still rising. For Switzerland, the SNB’s latest statements indicate a cautious approach but no sharp policy shifts. The Swiss inflation rate was hovering around 1.4% at the start of 2025, lower than its neighbors.

Impact on Switzerland

Switzerland continues to see relatively contained price growth, buoyed by a strong franc and diversified trade. Import prices have remained manageable despite wider European uncertainties. However, Swiss exporters feel pressure from a strong currency, and households face higher costs for housing and imported goods. The SNB has signaled readiness to intervene if external inflation shocks intensify. Key sectors like tourism and manufacturing are closely monitoring global demand trends.

• Stable inflation supports consumer confidence
• Swiss exporters face competitiveness challenges
• Household budgets are strained by select imported goods prices

What happens next

Experts predict inflation in Switzerland will remain below 2% for much of 2025, barring unexpected global shocks. The SNB is expected to continue its cautious monetary strategy, intervening in currency markets if necessary. International developments—especially in the US, China, and the eurozone—will remain closely watched. Swiss households and businesses are advised to monitor costs and stay flexible amid ongoing uncertainty. Further developments on global commodity prices and geopolitical risks could still shift the inflation trajectory in the coming months.